9/18/2023 0 Comments Us oil production 2022![]() ![]() At the time of writing, ICE Brent futures were around $80/bbl while NYMEX WTI had slumped to $75/bbl. The sell-off comes despite lower OPEC+ production, an EU embargo on Russian crude oil coming into full force and a relaxation of China’s Covid restrictions that could pave the way for a quicker demand recovery in the world’s second largest oil consumer. At the time of writing, ICE Brent traded at $80/bbl and Nymex WTI at $75/bbl.Ī weak macroeconomic environment and ample supply have knocked around $15/bbl off benchmark crude prices over the past month. Nearby time spreads slumped amid growing evidence of a comfortably supplied Atlantic Basin, sending the front-end of the Brent and WTI curves into contango for the first time this year. Benchmark crude oil futures plunged by around $8-9/bbl over the course of November and a further $5/bbl in early December, as macro-economic headwinds took centre-stage and apprehension about OPEC+ cuts and EU embargoes faded.Preliminary data for the US, Europe and Japan show industry stocks increased by 3.1 mb in November. OECD industry stocks increased by 17.3 mb, to 2 765 mb, narrowing the deficit versus the five-year average to 150.2 mb, but OECD government stocks fell by 19.9 mb. ![]() Global observed inventories fell by 23.2 mb in October as product stocks fell for the first time since March and crude oil saw a smaller build.Export revenues, however, dropped $0.7 bn to $15.8 bn on lower prices and wider discounts for Russian-origin products. Loadings to India reached a new high of 1.3 mb/d. Crude oil loadings were largely unchanged m-o-m, even as shipments to the EU fell by 430 kb/d to 1.1 mb/d. Russian oil exports increased by 270 kb/d to 8.1 mb/d, the highest since April as diesel exports rose by 300 kb/d to 1.1 mb/d.After ten consecutive quarters of estimated stock draws, refined product balances are expected to be back in positive territory in the first half of 2023. Global refinery throughputs surged 2.2 mb/d in November to the highest since January 2020, resulting in sharply lower diesel and gasoline cracks and refinery margins.Following annual gains this year of 4.7 mb/d, growth of 770 kb/d in 2023 will raise supply to 100.8 mb/d. A steeper drop is expected next month as the EU ban on Russian crude imports and the G7 price cap take effect. ![]()
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